The results of the U.S. midterm elections could reshape Canada’s relationship with its southern neighbour, with potential economic and political consequences for Alberta, according to a University of Lethbridge political scientist.
Yale Belanger, professor and chair of the University of Lethbridge’s Department of Political Science, said the election results could create new opportunities for Canada while challenging some of the political assumptions shaping Alberta’s relationship with the United States.
Belanger said Democratic victories in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives following the Nov. 3 vote would create a stronger system of checks and balances on President Donald Trump’s administration. Previously, Republicans controlled both chambers of Congress, giving Trump greater freedom to pursue his political agenda.
“The President, who had fairly free reign previously to implement his agenda, now has to play much nicer with the Senate and with the House,” Belanger said.
He said the election results also reflected growing dissatisfaction among American voters over economic issues, tariffs and some of Trump’s more controversial political positions.
Belanger said that frustration could increase pressure on Washington to address trade tensions and strengthen economic ties with international partners, including Canada.
He said the changing political environment could help bring Canada and the U.S. closer to a negotiated trade agreement.
Belanger described the political back-and-forth between the two countries as a familiar part of international relations, with both sides often positioning themselves publicly before returning to negotiations. However, he said economic concerns in the United States could push Trump back to the negotiating table sooner rather than later.
“I believe that President Donald Trump is going to come back to the table sooner than later, and we’re going to see a negotiated deal,” Belanger said. “I think we’re closer to an agreement at this point now that all of the major votes are out of the way, and now that pressure is going to land on the President’s desk to improve the economy as we move forward.”
While the details of a potential agreement remained uncertain, Belanger said Prime Minister Mark Carney had taken important steps to strengthen Canada’s economic position.
He pointed to efforts to establish stronger economic connections between provinces and build relationships with international partners beyond the United States. He said those efforts could be particularly important for Alberta, whose economy has significant ties to the American market.
Belanger said stronger domestic economic relationships would help Canada become less dependent on the United States and give the country greater control over its economic future.
He said the U.S. election results could also prompt Alberta to reconsider some of the political comparisons it makes with American states.
Premier Danielle Smith has frequently referenced conservative jurisdictions such as Texas when discussing Alberta’s political and economic direction. Belanger cautioned that recent election results demonstrated why those comparisons should not be treated as permanent political realities.
He pointed to Democratic victories in traditionally Republican states such as Texas and Kansas as evidence that established political divisions could shift.
“I don’t think that we can anchor ourselves with stereotypes and point to specific states, counties, regions, and be able to depend on them remaining ideologically static for long periods of time.”
Belanger added that growing participation among younger voters was another important factor in the American election results, demonstrating that political attitudes could change significantly between elections.
He said Alberta’s government would need to recognize those changes rather than rely on traditional political comparisons.
If the province continued to look toward American jurisdictions that were themselves experiencing political shifts, Belanger warned Alberta could risk being left behind.
Belanger also drew connections between the U.S. election results and Alberta’s recent referendum, arguing that both offered examples of voters challenging established political expectations.
The four immigration-related referendum questions received between 51.78 and 54.86 per cent support, according to Elections Alberta. Belanger said the results did not represent a particularly strong mandate for significant changes.
He argued that the overall results demonstrated some hesitation among Albertans about proceeding with the proposed measures.
While the immigration-related proposals received majority support, all four constitutional referendum questions were defeated. Belanger said the results suggested Albertans were less willing to support some of the more significant constitutional changes.
“All things being equal, the more moderate voices in this case won, but I do believe that there are some significant radical voices that are still linked to the separatist side who are well-funded, who are quite vocal and becoming more articulate by the day, who may continue to push these ideas as we move into the future.”
Belanger said the referendum should not be interpreted as an indication that those voices had disappeared.
For Belanger, the common thread between the U.S. midterms and Alberta’s referendum was that voters were demonstrating a willingness to challenge political expectations. He said governments could no longer assume that particular regions or groups of voters would remain politically aligned over the long term.
For Alberta, that meant reassessing its political and economic relationships, particularly as Canada worked to strengthen its position in negotiations with the United States.
Belanger said the election results could give Canada an opportunity to strengthen its position with Washington. He cautioned, however, that Alberta and the federal government would need to adjust their political and economic strategies as circumstances changed.
