Uncertainty over Alberta’s future relationship with Canada is increasingly affecting business decisions, with 44 per cent of businesses surveyed reporting an impact on their operations, according to the Alberta Chambers of Commerce.
That figure rose from 22 per cent in June 2025 to 39 per cent in June 2026 and 44 per cent in the latest Alberta Perspectives Hot Button survey, conducted from Sept. 28 to Oct. 2 among 630 participants across the province.
Of the businesses reporting an impact, 96 per cent described it as negative, including 59 per cent who said the effect was very negative.
The survey also found that 69 per cent of respondents believed the referendum and separation debate were affecting Alberta’s economy, up from 53 per cent in June 2025.
Shauna Feth, president and CEO of the Alberta Chambers of Commerce, said the organization does not take a position on separation but aims to communicate how businesses are responding to the uncertainty.
“What stands out in this research is that the impact is becoming more tangible. Over the course of the year, more businesses have told us the uncertainty is reaching into planning, investment and growth decisions,” Feth said.
The reported effects extend beyond general concern about the province’s political future. Among businesses experiencing negative impacts, 79 per cent cited uncertainty affecting planning and forecasting, while 61 per cent reported greater concern about a potential recession.
Half said they were considering relocating or expanding outside Alberta. Another 44 per cent reported that major investments or projects had been delayed, scaled back or cancelled.
Feth said the findings were broadly consistent with earlier research conducted in 2026, suggesting that the effects had persisted as more businesses reported experiencing them.
The referendum and separation debate ranked as the leading source of business uncertainty in the survey. Twenty-four per cent of respondents identified the issue as their top concern, while 47 per cent placed it among their top three.
Other concerns included Canada-U.S. trade relations, tariffs and the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, as well as inflation, input costs and provincial and federal government policies.
Despite the concerns, 52 per cent of respondents said they were confident the provincial and federal governments could work together to reduce uncertainty through policy changes or other initiatives. Forty-three per cent said they were not confident.
Feth said governments could help businesses make long-term decisions by providing greater clarity and predictability, even when they disagreed on other issues.
“Both orders of government can reduce uncertainty by focusing on the economic issues within their control, including trade, market access, regulatory predictability and the conditions that support investment and growth.”
The survey also asked respondents how two possible referendum outcomes could affect their businesses.
Fifty-nine per cent said a vote for Alberta to remain in Canada would have a positive impact on their business. By contrast, 64 per cent said a vote to begin the legal process toward a future binding referendum on separation would have a negative impact.
The chamber said it would continue to advocate for economic conditions that support businesses across Alberta, regardless of the referendum outcome.
