As Alberta voters prepare to weigh in on a referendum that could reshape the province’s relationship with the rest of Canada, one political science professor does not expect the last-minute arrival of federal political leaders to have much effect on the outcome.
Yale Belanger, professor and chair of political science at the University of Lethbridge, said Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre are both making the case for Alberta to remain part of Canada and for Albertans to not vote for the province to start the process to hold a binding referendum to seperate. Despite approaching the issue from different political perspectives, he said both men are reinforcing the message that Alberta is an important part of Canada.
“Ultimately, they can have an impact, they can have influence,” Belanger said. “But most voters at this point, they’ve made up their mind.”
Belanger said this type of campaign is not unusual, pointing to the 1995 Quebec referendum, when federalist politicians campaigned to encourage voters to reject separation.
He explained the fact that both the prime minister and the opposition leader are making the case for staying in Canada creates an unusual political dynamic.
Carney has emphasized co-operation and economic measures intended to address Alberta’s longstanding grievances, including pipeline-related initiatives. Poilievre, meanwhile, has focused on his Alberta roots and his shared frustrations with the federal government.
Belanger said Carney has the advantage of being able to use the powers of the prime minister’s office to address some of those concerns before the vote. Poilievre, as Opposition leader, does not have the same ability to implement changes, but his connection to the province allows him to speak to those frustrations from a personal perspective.
Despite their differences, Belanger said, both leaders are ultimately delivering the same message: Alberta should stay in Canada.
Beyond domestic political campaigning, he said foreign interference and the rapid spread of misinformation online are concerns as Albertans consider the referendum question.
The U of L professor said he has identified 23 AI generated websites promoting the separation movement in Alberta. He warned that AI-generated content and social media can quickly amplify political talking points and false information.
“When you combine that with our regularized use of social media, the movement of ideas and false information, it’s astounding.”
Belanger also raised concerns about potential interference from foreign country’s, referencing Russia and United States. He said the extent to which any foreign activity could influence voters remains uncertain; but, the debate also raises broader questions about Canada’s political and economic relationships, including the importance of maintaining stability while diversifying trade to reduce the country’s dependence on the United States.
According to Belanger, voter participation will be an important measure of engagement in the referendum. Elections Alberta has been cited as predicting turnout could reach 80 per cent. The political scientist said he would like to see even more eligible voters participate.
“I think that 80 per cent is low turnout, to be perfectly honest,” Belanger said. “I’d love to see 100 per cent because this is a right that has been fought for.”
He stressed that voting is both a right and a responsibility, particularly when the questions at stake could affect Alberta’s relationship with the federal government and the rest of the country.
Belanger pointed to the historical exclusion of First Nations people and women from voting as a reminder that democratic participation should not be taken for granted.
The referendum raises fundamental questions about Canadian federalism and the relationships between governments across the country he explained. However, his message to Albertans is straightforward: take the time to become informed and cast a ballot.
