According to one political scientist, Canada’s political climate is heating up — and not just because of events south of the border.
Chris Kakucha, a political scientist at the University of Lethbridge, said Canada is navigating pressure on two fronts: internal tensions between the provinces and Ottawa and high-stakes international negotiations, particularly with the United States.
According to Kakucha, internally, one of the key issues that has resurfaced is reducing trade barriers between provinces.
“This conversation has been going on for decades,” he said.
While the federal government has lowered many of its own trade restrictions, provinces retain control over key areas such as labour mobility and procurement. Progress on those changes has been “incremental at best,” he said.
Following the first ministers’ meeting, Kakucha said questions emerged about whether a new spirit of cooperation is taking shape under Prime Minister Mark Carney.
He described Canada’s system as traditionally rooted in “cooperative federalism,” but cautioned that rhetoric must translate into tangible results.
“Right now we have a Prime Minister that is trying to build bridges to the provinces politically,” he said. “The real reality is whether or not that leads to some tangible changes.”
“You can measure cooperation,” he added, pointing to two key tests: meaningful action on internal trade barriers and how Ottawa navigates separatist pressures in Alberta and Quebec.
Kakucha said Carney’s leadership style marks a contrast with his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, particularly in dealings with U.S. President Donald Trump. While Trudeau was more openly confrontational, Carney has adopted a shifting strategy that began firm and has since moved to a more conciliatory tone, he said.
As negotiations continue over the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, Kakucha said understanding Trump’s negotiating style will be key, calling him “unpredictable — but predictably so.”
“He’s a business person. One way you’re entering into a negotiation is trying to keep the person on the other side of the table off balance and not thinking rationally so that you can get them to make some sort of emotional decision and or bad decision,” he said.
“He has a cost, he’s willing to pay for certain things and if you look at most things that he’s even going back to his first administration dealing with North Korea, he’s going to push, push, push until he see that sees that something can’t happen.”
Kakucha said one of two things typically follows: Trump will double down, which he said is “ultimately the strategy that he almost always uses initially,” or he will walk away claiming victory “without any really tangible victory.”
“Carney’s a professional,” Kakucha said, noting his experience leading both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. “He’s going to handle negotiations much differently than the previous government.”
However, Kakucha warned that a different strategy does not guarantee a deal.
Whether the issue is provincial trade barriers or international negotiations, Kakucha said Canada is at a crossroads.
“There’s a lot of rhetoric right now,” he said. “But the proof will be in what actually changes.”
With unity tested at home and abroad, the coming months could reveal whether cooperation and careful negotiation can cool Canada’s rising political temperature — or deepen existing divisions.
